Ua hōʻike ʻia ka loiloi helu he ʻoiaʻiʻo ka "hot streak" a i ʻole ke kaula o nā holomua a ʻike nā mea āpau i kēia i kekahi manawa o kā lākou ʻoihana.
ʻO "Hot streak", i kapa ʻia hoʻi he "winning streak" ua wehewehe ʻia ʻo ia he lanakila a i ʻole nā holomua a i ʻole ka holo ʻana o ka laki maikaʻi . He mea pohihihi iki ia i ka wā a me ke kumu e hana ʻia ai nā lanakila lanakila i ka ʻoihana o ke kanaka ʻo ia hoʻi ka manawa hea lākou e holomua nui ai a i ʻole loaʻa iā lākou ka ʻike hana maikaʻi loa. Ua noʻonoʻo nā kānaka ʻepekema a me nā mea helu helu i kēia a ua kākoʻo i kekahi manawa i ke kumumanaʻo o ka 'probability' no ia mau holomua. No ka laʻana, ma ke kahua o ka haʻuki, ua hoʻopili ʻia ke kumumanaʻo o ka hoʻolei ʻana i ke kālā inā e hoʻolei kekahi i kahi kālā i nā manawa he nui, hiki ke hana ʻia kahi kaʻina hana ʻole i kēlā me kēia manawa. I kekahi manawa ua manaʻoʻiʻo ʻia e hiki i ka hana nui ke hoʻonui i ka hiki ke loaʻa kahi wela wela a i ʻole e kōkua paha i ka hoʻomau ʻana a i ʻole ka mālama ʻana iā ia. ʻAʻohe wehewehe piha a kūpono paha ma hope o ke kumumanaʻo o ke wela wela. Makemake nā mea a pau e komo i ka 'formula huna' no kā lākou mau wela wela paʻakikī no ka mea e alualu ana nā mea a pau i ka holomua nui i kā lākou ʻoihana.
ʻO ka manaʻo o ka "wela streak"
Ma kahi noiʻi i paʻi ʻia ma Nature , ua kālailai a hoʻokolokolo nā kānaka noiʻi ma ke Kula Hoʻokele ʻo Kellogg ma ke Kulanui ʻo Northwestern, USA i ka ʻikepili ʻoihana o 20,400 mau kānaka ʻepekema, 6,233 mau alakaʻi kiʻiʻoniʻoni/kiʻiʻoniʻoni a me 3,480 mau mea pena kiʻi pākahi e kālele nui ana i nā kahua o nā hana noʻeau a me nā ʻepekema . No nā mea pena kiʻi, ua nānā nā kānaka noiʻi i nā kumukūʻai o kā lākou mau hana a lākou i uku wale ai a loaʻa i nā kūʻai kūʻai kiʻi. ʻO kahi ala maikaʻi e hoʻokolokolo ai i nā alakaʻi kiʻiʻoniʻoni, ʻo ia ka nānā ʻana i kā lākou mau helu ma ka pūnaewele IMDB (Internet Movie DataBase) no ka mea, ua piʻi a iho kā lākou mau helu ma muli o ko lākou holomua i kahi manawa. No ka nānā ʻana i nā wānana ʻoihana o nā kānaka ʻepekema a me nā mea noiʻi, ua ʻike ʻia ka nui o ka ʻōlelo ʻia ʻana o kā lākou mau hana noiʻi ma nā puke pai hoʻonaʻauao (ʻikepili i hōʻiliʻili ʻia mai Google Scholar a me Web of Science). Ua wehewehe nā kānaka noiʻi he "kaha wela" i wehewehe ʻia he wā o ka ʻike hana ikaika i hōʻike ʻia e ka poʻe e hana ʻia ma ka liʻiliʻi hoʻokahi i ka ʻoihana o kekahi a hoʻomau mau ia no kahi manawa o ʻelima mau makahiki. I loko o kēia wā momona, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka holomua i loaʻa ma mua o nā manawa ʻē aʻe i ka ʻoihana. Kokoke i ka hapahā o kēia hui holoʻokoʻa o ka poʻe i ʻelua a ʻoi aku paha mau kaha lanakila. No laila, he "maoli" loa kēia kaha lanakila a ʻaʻole ia he manaʻo wahaheʻe (e like me ka manaʻo ʻia i kekahi manawa) a hana wale ia me ka ʻole o ka ʻōlelo mua. No nā makahiki he ʻumi, ua hoʻopaʻa ka poʻe loiloi e piʻi ana ka poʻe a pau i ka waena o kahi ʻoihana, e like me ka laʻana, inā hoʻomaka kekahi e hana i ka makahiki 25 a hoʻomaha i ka makahiki 60, ʻike lākou i ka piʻi ʻana i ka hopena o nā kanahā. Eia nō naʻe, ʻōlelo nā hōʻike ma kēia noiʻi hou loa he "random" ka kaha wela a hiki ke hana i kēlā me kēia pae o ka ʻoihana o kekahi. No laila, ʻaʻohe pili o kēia kaha lanakila me ka makahiki. No ka laʻana, hiki i kahi ʻepekema a i ʻole kahi mea pena kiʻi ke loaʻa i kēia kaha o ka holomua a i ʻole "kiʻekiʻe o ka noʻeau" i ka hapa mua, waena a i ʻole ma hope o kāna ʻoihana.
ʻAʻohe mea holomua e like me ka holomua!
Eia kekahi, ʻike ʻia ʻo ka manawa o ʻelima mau makahiki e hōʻike ana i ka wā e hoʻomaka ai kahi streak wela a loaʻa ka pae kiʻekiʻe o ka kūleʻa, alakaʻi kēia i nā kūleʻa ma hope o ka hoʻoulu ʻana i ka pōmaikaʻi maikaʻi i kāna ʻoihana no kekahi manawa hou i kahi ʻano clustered. . Hiki i kekahi hana koʻikoʻi ke hoʻoikaika maʻalahi i ke kanaka a lilo paha ʻo ia i mea ʻoi aku ka noʻonoʻo a maikaʻi hoʻi i ka mea hiki iā ia. Hāʻawi kēia i ka kaulana a me ka mahalo no kā lākou hana no laila e hoʻomau i kā lākou holomua holomua no kekahi manawa hou aku. Loaʻa ka hāʻawi nui ma muli o ka hui ʻana me nā ʻano kanaka kūpono ma hope o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka lanakila lanakila. No ka laʻana, e loaʻa i kahi kanaka ʻepekema i lanakila nui nā haʻawina/kālā a me nā makana a hiki i kahi mea pena ke kūkulu i kāna hale kiʻi ponoʻī a hiki i kēia ke hoʻonui i ka kaulana a me ka kaulana. Pēlā nō, hiki i nā alakaʻi kiʻiʻoniʻoni ke loaʻa i nā kuʻikahi kiʻiʻoniʻoni a me nā kiʻiʻoniʻoni e alakaʻi a i ka uku kiʻekiʻe a me ka ʻāpana kālā, ʻaʻole e haʻi i ka kaulana me nā makana kiʻiʻoniʻoni. Ua loaʻa i ka mea pena kaulana ʻo Vincent van Gogh ka wela wela i ka makahiki 1888 i kona pena ʻana ma luna o 200 mau kiʻi pena a ma ka palapala pilikino ua neʻe ʻo ia mai Paris a i kahi liʻiliʻi ma waena o ke ʻano o ka hema o Farani i hauʻoli a ʻoluʻolu. ʻO Albert Einstein, he physicist theoretical kaulana, ua loaʻa iā ia kahi steak wela kupaianaha i ka makahiki 1905 i kona ʻike ʻana i ke kumumanaʻo o ka relativity a loaʻa iā ia ka makana no ka Nobel. Ma hope mai, ua ʻike ʻo ia i ka neʻe Brownian - pehea e launa pū ai nā molekala kekahi i kekahi - e hōʻailona ana i kēia manawa he manawa hanohano no nā ʻike physics.
Hoʻomaopopo ka poʻe noiʻi ʻo ka ʻepekema a i ʻole ka hana noʻeau he ʻano kumuhana koʻikoʻi a ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻopuka ʻia ka maikaʻi o ka kūleʻa ma ke ʻano o ka ʻikepili pahuhopu. Akā, aia kekahi mau ala āpau e hiki ai ke hoʻoholo i ka holomua. No ka laʻana, loaʻa i nā ʻepekema nā huaʻōlelo kiʻekiʻe no kā lākou hana i ka wā e loaʻa ai ka wela wela a ke hoʻomau nei kēia a hiki i 10 mau makahiki. Pēlā nō, loaʻa i nā alakaʻi kiʻiʻoniʻoni nā helu IMDB kiʻekiʻe e ana i ka mahalo i loaʻa iā lākou no kā lākou hana a me nā helu pahu pahu. A, no nā mea pena kiʻi, ʻo nā kumukūʻai kūʻai aku he hōʻailona maikaʻi o ko lākou kaulana a me ka kūleʻa a me ka waiwai nui o kā lākou hana. A e like me ka ʻōlelo ʻana, ʻaʻohe mea e kūleʻa e like me ka holomua. Hoʻokahi kūleʻa e alakaʻi i nā manawa hou aʻe no nā kūleʻa hou aʻe, kahe kālā, nā makana a me ka hoʻolaha. Akā, no ka mana'o o ka po'e noi'i e hana i ka 'ikepili helu no laila ua 'oi aku ko lākou hoihoi i ka nānā 'ana i ka "waiwai" i loa'a i ke kanaka ma kā lākou 'oihana. ʻOiai ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, pili ka wehewehe ʻana o ka kūleʻa a wehewehe kekahi poʻe iā ia ma ka pōʻaiapili etika e lawe mai ana i ka ʻoluʻolu noʻonoʻo a me ka helu hauʻoli.
ʻO kekahi mea koʻikoʻi o ka lanakila lanakila ʻaʻole ia he mea maoli akā ʻaʻole hiki ke wānana maoli a hiki ke kū i kēlā me kēia manawa. Ma hope o kekahi manawa, ʻelima mau makahiki paha, hiki ke hoʻopau i ka wela wela no ke kanaka. Ma kēia noiʻi ʻana, ʻaʻole i ʻike ʻia kahi pilina ma waena o ka hiki a me ka huahana a me ke kiʻekiʻe o ka holomua i loaʻa iā lākou i kā lākou ʻoihana. Eia kekahi, ʻaʻohe mea i ʻike ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o ka huahana "i ka wā" o ka wela wela. Eia nō naʻe, ʻike ʻia kahi ego holomua ma ke ʻano he ʻano hiki ke alakaʻi i nā ʻano hana o ka kūleʻa. A manaʻolana nui paha, e loaʻa i kēlā me kēia kanaka kā lākou mahele o ka holo ʻana, he laʻana he 90 pākēneka o ka poʻe ʻepekema, pēlā pū me 91 pākēneka o nā mea pena kiʻi a me 88 pākēneka o ka luna kiʻiʻoniʻoni i hoʻopaʻa ʻia. No laila, pono e laha ma nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe no ka mea, ʻokoʻa loa kēia mau ʻoihana ʻekolu mai kekahi i kekahi a ua koho ʻia lākou no ka nānā ʻana ma muli o ka maʻalahi o ka hōʻuluʻulu ʻana i kā lākou ʻikepili. ʻO ka "wela streak" he mea maoli nō ia.
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Puna (s)
Lu Liu et al. 2018. ʻO nā streaks wela i ka hana noʻeau, moʻomeheu, a me ka ʻepekema. Nature.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0315-8
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